You lose, I win. I lose, I win and everything is approved by a non-existant body. So you make a promise to all your friends, in fact to anyone who will listen. It's a promise you know you can't keep. How do you get out of it without losing face, either of them. The simple answer is you place the blame on someone else. You would have achieved it but...... you know how it is. This is the latest game being played by BOJO and DOCU. They have put forward a revised withdrawal agreement to the EU. They, and their supporters, go on and on about how they have made concessions although can't seem to explain what these concessions are. However, they also know that this deal is based on maybes, possibilities and downright stupidities. The major problem is how when we leave the EU and become a separate country we don't have a border between the EU and us. Now in most places this doesn't matter. There's the English Channel and the North Sea cutting us off from all other European countries but on the island of Ireland there is, or will be, or should be, a land border. Why, you may ask but if you do you're not really thinking. Those of us who want to leave the EU want to be able to make our own laws. If these laws differ from EU laws then there is a problem. Let's make this simple. All vehicles in the EU must have yellow wheels. All vehicles in the UK must have green wheels. When you cross the border between Eire and Northern Ireland, you must change your wheels. Now life is not that simple. The amount of trade, trading rules, animal welfare rules and tariffs will be very different. How do you police this when there is now a genuine border? The reason against putting up simple customs posts like we used to have all over Europe when I was young(er) is that these would undermine the so-called Good Friday agreement that brought about peace in Northern Ireland, Freedom to cross the border without checks was paramount. For the first year or so after we leave, if we leave with a deal, there is no problem. Both sides have agreed on a transitional period where the UK will effectively remain under EU rules for trade until we have negotiated a new trade deal. I think this is until December 2020 but it might be 2021. However it is extremely unlikely that a deal would have been reached by then so Theresa May and the EU put in the withdrawal agreement the so-called Backstop which would only apply if no trade deal had been reached and the transitional period had expired. It would mean Northern Ireland would remain a part of the EU until a deal was concluded and so there would be no need for a border Lots of people didn't like this, claiming it could keep Northern Ireland in the EU forever. However, in all negotiations, the EU was firmly fixed on never allowing a border between the two countries on the island of Ireland BOJO has come up with a plan which, in my opinion and I may be totally wrong, looks like one to which the EU, and indeed any person with a grain of sense on the EU side, could never agree to, ever. The plan says that, once the transitional period ends, checks will be introduced, but not on the border, somewhere else, maybe 10 miles away who knows. Now to my little brain this does indeed avoid introducing a border between the two countries. It actually manages to introduce two borders, one somewhere in Northern Ireland and one somewhere in Eire. However, and this has gone on a bit long so I will cut to what I see as the most stupid bit. This arrangement, if it came in, would have to be agreed by the Northern Irish assembly every four years. So, they could refuse, we would have left, a hard border would be there and everything the EU tried to avoid would happen. Basically BOJO is asking th EU to take on trust that the Assembly would approve it until there is a trade deal. If they don't, by the way, the agreement would lapse after one further year. But the Northern Irish assembly has not met for nearly three years and there is little sign of the political parties there agreeing to meet again soon. So, if this were accepted and there were still no assembly who would take the decision. Surely not. BOJO? Most people feel there is no way the EU could agree to this, BOJO will claim it is all their fault and he will head off into the sunset and get the no-deal I think he always knew would happen. Except the law says................................. October 4th 2019
I say Potarto and you say Potato and both are correct. Let's call the whole thing off, please. BOJO has told the Scottish Court of Sessions that, if he fails to have agreed a deal by October 19th, he WILL send a letter to the EU requesting an extension. BOJO has said that we will leave on October 31st, deal or no deal, and without delay. Now a bear of little brain can see that both of these cannot be true in spirit. The new party game for this weekend is if (i) is true, how can (ii) be true. Let's play some guessing games. Supposing BOJO writes and sends the letter as the Act instructs but then writes another letter saying he's changed his mind. Does the Act specifically state he can't do this? (By the way all of these questions are rhetorical as far as I am concerned because I haven't got the legal training or knowledge to answer them) Supposing BOJO refused some aid/help to another EU country unless they
After prorogation, comes the Queen's speech. Before an election, comes a manifesto. Today's puzzle is spot the difference. Due to circumstance beyond my control, and giving rise to a considerable amount of grumpiness, this column has effectively been prorogued for the last 10 days. In simple terms, my laptop died. I knew it was ailing and so I made sure all files and folders were copied to my external hard drive but, even when told of its demise and I had purchased a replacement, I still had to upload the files and folders and reload all the programmes I use. All is now done and I am happy to re-open this column with a new Queen's speech. My Lords and Members of the House of Commons and anyone else who reads this but really needs to get a life. My Government’s priority has always been to secure the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union on 31 October. This is of course impossible as time has run out and the law says we must ask for an extension. My Government has unfortunately made such a big fuss about achieving this that it would be an amazing loss of face, maybe both of them, and so My Government will continue to look for other people to blame when the impossible proves to be exactly that. Apart from that, My Government will make a lot of promises which, having a majority of minus 45, it could never hope to fulfil. My Ministers will set up lots of committees which will look into everything and will introduce measures to ensure that no-one knows what these measures are. My Government’s new economic plan will be underpinned by a complete lack of being able to grasp a responsible fiscal strategy. More measures will be brought forward, unknown to all, to improve education, health, mental health, adult social care, tackle violent crime, sentencing, victim support, and look after individuals, families and their homes. The Domestic Abuse Bill, which stopped when My Government prorogued Parliament, will start all over again. Proposals will also be brought forward to protect the welfare of animals, including those in government and the Palace of Westminister. Members of the House of Commons, lots of other things will be lied before you. So don't forget, vote Conservative. Ooops sorry, your Majesty, wasn't supposed to leave that bit in. October 15th 2019
Not all reporting is good. Being neither seen nor heard sometimes is. Racism is wrong. Racism in sport is wrong. Those who indulge in it are among the lowest form of human life there is. In the modern world, the access to social media gives the opportunity for these pieces of scum to broadcast their vile views to so many people. The latest outburst of racism in sport, at England's football match in Bulgaria, was, in my view, more likely to happen because the ordinary media made so much of it in the build up and has been made far worse, and far more likely to happen again and again, because of the almost blanket coverage the perpetrators have received. I am aware, and have said before, that the availability of 24 hour news channels has done more harm than good. There aren't enough news stories to fill a 24 hour news channel, let alone several, and so stories are broadcast over and over again and items that are not really news are reported on to fill the gaps. I am sure these idiots who taunted the England players were absolutely delighted with the coverage they received. Whether they are genuinely racist, set out to upset England's players and disrupt their game, or just wanted some publicity we can never know for certain. But of those three possibilities, one of them was easily achieved thanks to media organisations giving them end-to-end coverage. I'm not saying lack of such coverage would prevent such abuse: I am saying I believe less coverage might, might, limit such behaviour and could mean there would be less copycat instances in the future. The media needs to think about how it may be fuelling racism because of how it handles these stories. October 16th 2019
Cornflakes for Brexit, sir? Crunch today was today or was it yesterday or last Friday or tomorrow or Saturday. In a way this follows on from my last grump about 24 hour news. The media has so many people reporting on Brexit, that it is not cost effective if they say nothing. So, endlessly, tirelessly, we see these journalists that fill our airways spouting, or should it be sprouting as so many of them are in Brussels, on about who is saying what to whom and what it all means. I would agree that this time it all does no harm. Brexit is news. Our very future as a continent hinges on what happens. But, just as news channels need stories, so politicians need to spin their stories to maximum effect for their benefit. Last week we had the “blame game”. This week we have the “we're nearly there” game. The problem is that rather like that recorded phone message that says you are moving up the queue, hardly anyone seems to know how nearly we are to being there and even fewer know where “there” is. Just to remind you what needs to be done to leave the EU with a deal, we have to first have that legal deal. Not just a scrappy piece of paper waved at Heston aerodrome but a legal, watertight treaty which cannot be disputed in its meaning. This then has to be approved by the Council of European Ministers at their summit tomorrow and Friday. This then needs to be agreed by the British Parliament on their unusual Saturday sitting. Then the EU Parliament has to agree to the treaty. If all this happens, then a myriad number of laws need to be put in place and passed by that UK Parliament before the United Kingdom can leave the EU. After that, years of negotiations will take place and, as it stands at the moment, the UK will remain as it is with regard to EU terms until December 2020, or maybe longer. This is known as the transitional period because, unlike Johnson and Farage may have hinted at, even more than hinted at but let's enter into this new spirit of all being nice to each other, leaving the EU is not a simple one day we're in, the next day we're out occurrence. Despite Brexit having more crunchies than your average breakfast cereal, the Brexit serial is far from over even after crunch day. October 17th 2019
Johnson's baby powder may still not stop soreness. Early this year I turned 70. I am now 69 again. I have just heard, as I did in November 2018, that the British PM has negotiated a great new deal with the EU, finalising the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the EU. Everyone involved, excluding those who now need to ratify it, think it's a fair and balanced deal. Watch this space. It appears that some people, say the DUP, are not in agreement with it as they said yesterday. The next day or so will be interesting as we watch to see how much bullying and bluster can work. The EU are of course delighted because if it now fails it certainly isn't their fault. By the way, most of this new agreement is actually Theresa May's agreement. October 18th 2019
When is a new car not a new car. Replacing one wheel constitutes newness? So BOJO has achieved the impossible. He has a brand new deal with the EU. Well, actually he has the same old deal with the EU with a few changes. He has replaced the backstop with two inverted commas and a few exclamation marks. By placing a border down the Irish Sea, he has done something that a Tory MP once told the DUP party conference a Tory government could or should never do. Worryingly, for anyone who thinks BOJO might be a man you can trust, he was that Tory MP. No wonder the DUP will not support this new(ish, very ish) deal. Anyhow the Brexiteers in the media are praising him for having done the impossible. Many others agree. But to him, it was never impossible. To sell the family jewels in order to just say you did what you said you would, was always likely to happen. Yes, the EU re-opened the withdrawal agreement that they said they would never do but only to replace a bit nobody liked with a new bit that nobody will like. The EU gave some ground, BOJO gave an entire field. But don't worry. He's told everyone he can get this through Parliament tomorrow. Of course, if he does, then the true problems will start as we begin to negotiate our new position with the EU and others. Of course, if he doesn't, then the true problems will start as he looks an idiot, backtracks furiously and has no idea what to do. So, let's "get this excellent deal over the line"!!!!! October 19th 2019
The outlook is no longer blustery, the windbag is fully inflated. I am now on the look out for any Rugby supporters who had tickets for the England/France game last Saturday that was disrupted by Typhoon Hagibis. I need to know how upset and disappointed they were by hoping to see something happen and ending up just listening to a load of wind. Typhoon Letwin has just breezed into the House of Commons, put forward an amendment to the EU Withdrawal Agreement and the meaningful vote has been cancelled by damp squib BOJO. There was, however, an amazing amount of hot wind. The debris will need to be cleared up and then next week the next Typhoon will surely arrive. Following the normal pattern of naming these in ascending alphabetical order, it will be known as Typhoon Mogg, Merkel or Macron. Batten down, sandbag all orifices and move to higher land. BOJO could be elevated to the peerage. October 22nd 2019, 1030am
It's all in the acronym. Right, quick update before the excitement begins today. MPs are being asked to vote today on the second reading of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (known as WAB). Once this goes through, and it looks as though it might, then BOJO the DODO will be on the way to celebrating his great triumph in obtaining his Terrific Withdrawal Agreement Treaty (known as TWAT). Then he will be wanting to obtain the Withdrawal Agreement Nited Kingdom European Release (WANKER). These two achievements could well define his political career. Meanwhile Jacob Rees-Mogg wants to pass a motion (medically known as crap) which says the whole of the WAB can be debated in 3 days, less time, according to Caroline Lucas, than it took to debate the Wild Animals in Circuses Act, which affected 19 animals rather than 65 million people. It is possible that some people could be saying that BOJO and Rees-Mogg were two of those wild animals in circuses. Feel free to name the other 17. By tonight, we will know a lot more. It will probably all be meaningless, full of crunch, but more we will know. October 23rd 2019.
What happened yesterday - Part One. Be warned, you may get three blogs today. You may well ask what happened yesterday but before that a brief resume, in very simple terms because I wouldn't understand it any other way, of how a bill passes through Parliament and becomes a law, an act of Parliament. It all begins with a First Reading. This is when the bill's name is read out and then printed for all to read. No debate. The Second Reading is when the government, if it is their bill, opens the debate on the bill, the opposition reply and then all, or any, MPs contribute. At the end of the debate, a vote is taken. If the vote is won the bill continues to the Committee Stage. This can actually be done by a small committee of MPs or by the House of Commons as a whole. It is at this stage that amendments, changes, to the bill can be proposed and voted on. The amended bill is then reprinted (oh the paper) and returns to the full House (if done by a committee) and the Report Stage begins. Once again amendments may be made, votes taken and then the bill is given its Third Reading when there is yet more debate, though no amendments and a final vote taken on the bill. Then it goes off to the House of Lords for a similar amount of scrutiny. If the House of Lords make changes, the House of Commons debate these and it could go back and forth for longer than a piece of string. If they made no changes, or once all as been agreed, the bill goes to Buckingham Palace, the Queen climbs the stairs and we have the royal ascent. Sorry, I needed some light relief. The Queen signs it, we have the royal assent and the bill becomes law. I know this is a lot to ask but please remember this or at least the gist of it. Yesterday, after a year of trying, Parliament agreed to the Second Reading of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, the first stage of us agreeing to leave the EU. Then........................................................................... October 23rd 2019.
What happened yesterday - Part Two. ...............15 minutes after winning this vote, Parliament voted again on the timetable the government had set to debate this bill and the government lost. Bills cannot proceed through Parliament without a timetable so, at this stage, the bill's progress was stopped. Jeremy Corbyn offered to sit down with the PM to discuss a revised timetable but, at the moment, the PM had not replied. The reason Parliament voted against the timetable was that BOJO wanted all the stages mentioned in the last piece to be done in 3 days. Parliament could work that quickly but if you think that this is a piece of legislation that will define this country for years to come, 3 days is a bit short. BOJO needed to rush it all through for two main reasons as far as I could see. One was for his ego and one for his deviousness. The first one, for his ego, was to achieve his DODO (do or die offer) to leave on 31st October or die in a ditch. The second reason, for his deviousness, was to make sure there was as little scrutiny of this deal as possible and to try to stop as many amendments as possible. Some very stupid, in my opinion, Conservative MPs tried to suggest that 3 days was long enough because, their example, the so-called Benn Act had gone through in a day. The Benn Act was about 3 pages, this one was 110. By extrapolation, this bill should have 33 days but who cares about extrapolation. As of now, BOJO has once again passed the buck and said he is waiting for the EU to consider his request for an extension. It looks as though they will agree and, in order to appear impartial and not interfere with UK politics, just grant what was asked for; an extension until January 31st 2020. A simple summing up: we have achieved something but not enough. The something we have achieved seems to be an extension and the chance to disagree on this bill at a different stage. October 23rd 2019.
A couple of genuine grumps. Instead of an appraisal of the current situation, you are now going to get two genuine grumps. Firstly, I want to grump vigorously about those MPs and others who keep claiming they are honouring the views of 17.4 million people who voted in a referendum in 2016. Factually, some may have died. Factually, some may have changed their minds. Factually, there are now an enormous number of people eligible to vote who couldn't vote in 2016. I accept the majority of people did vote to leave, I cannot accept that majority still exists. I would therefore ask those who make this statement to clarify the position by pointing out they are trying to satisfy the views of 17.4 million from 2016. Thank you The other point is the almost desperate clamour for an election to solve the Brexit impasse. I am not staggered that government and Conservative MPs are calling for an election. They think they will end up with a majority and be able to vote through their ridiculous bill. Sadly, under our constituency based voting system, it is more than possible for more people to vote for parties who support remain and yet a party supporting leave wins more seats. A brief explanation follows. Imagine a country with just six constituencies with 20 voters in each. There are 2 parties, A, which wants to leave, and B, which wants to remain. In constituencies 1, 2, 4 and 6 party A wins, gaining 11 votes against the 9 of party B. But in constituencies 3 and 5 party B wins, gaining all 20 votes. Party A is the new government with 4 MPs against 2 for party B. However 76 people voted for party B against 44 for party A. A simple example but true as to how are system works. An election would NOT give the current opinion of the public with regard to Brexit. Only a new referendum, a People's vote, would do that. I fail to see why those people cannot be asked again. It is not undemocratic. It is totally democratic and the only reason I can see why people oppose it is because they fear the result could be different. Have the courage of your own convictions, or more likely, the courage of your own stupidity, call a new referendum. October 24th 2019.
It is the fool who declares ‘I am ascending the summit,’ while he’s toddling around in the ditch. Clear the ditches, the DODO (do or die offer) is officially dead. It is no more, barring something amazing happening which it won't. BOJO announced today that he would allow Parliament more time to debate his “wonderful” deal but only if they vote for a general election to be held on December 12th. It needs to be pointed out that for an election to be held on that date, Parliament needs to be dissolved on November 6th, the day after it was due to be blown up..........................in 1605. That means that even if Parliament sat on weekends, and as the general election motion is not due to be tabled and voted on till Monday, they would still only be 8 days to get all parts of the bill through and it become law. Of those days, some would be for debating in the Lords, so you can probably reckon on, at the most, six days in the House of Commons and no other business could be debated. Unfortunately that can't happen as Mr John “order, order” Bercow is leaving the role of Speaker on October 31st and Parliament has to find time to debate and vote on who will be the new speaker. The funny thing is that, if BOJO hadn't paused his bill on Tuesday night, Parliament would have had, again including a weekend sitting, 8 days to debate the bill and finish before 31st October, thereby possibly avoiding BOJO failing to keep his promise to the British people. However, this may all be a waste of time as there are two things over which BOJO has no control. Actually there is almost everything over which he has no control but, in this case, the two things are the decision of the EU as to whether and for how long they may grant an extension and, secondly, can he get over 434 MPs to vote for an election. The EU will, so it is said, give their decision tomorrow, probably; the other decision depends a bit on the EU one. However there are many MPs, on all sides, who are not sure that voting for an election before the bill is agreed is a good or even sensible thing. I will expand on this more tomorrow before the weekend break. By the way I finally realised today why BOJO is calling it a “wonderful” deal. It is exactly that; a deal which people read and say “I wonder what that bit means”, “I wonder why that bit isn't there” and “I wonder why it now has the transition period in the Withdrawal Agreement so part of a binding treaty”. That last one means quite simply that if, by 31st December 2020, we have not agreed a new trade deal with the EU, we might just crash out without any deal at all. October 25th 2019.
When is a border not a border. When it's in the Irish Sea. So, as Friday seamlessly moves into Saturday, in Bexit terms, where has this past week taken us. The Withdrawal Amendment Bill passed its second reading and was then paused by BOJO the DODO because Parliament refused to scrutinise all 110 pages in two days. We then waited to hear if the EU was going to grant an extension and, if so, for how long. Then BOJO said he wanted an election and would bring a motion before Parliament to ask for this. It would need a two thirds majority, a so-called super majority because it leaves anyone who asks for one in the soup. Jacob Rees-Mogg said the motion would be tabled on Monday once they knew of the EU decision, which everyone thought would be announced on Friday. Everyone was wrong and the EU said they would tell the UK next week, maybe Monday, maybe Tuesday, maybe even Wednesday. Opposition parties said they would not agree to an election until an extension was guaranteed and even then they might not because there was a certain part of the WAB which could still mean we left with no-deal. BOJO said if they didn't agree, he would just keep bringing the motion back over and over again although I thought the Speaker had already said doing that was not permissible. That will now be the Speaker's fault. Next week everything should be much clearer although, even now, it is clear BOJO has failed on his much repeated promise of taking us out, deal or no-deal, on October 31st. It is, of course, someone else's fault and Nigel Farage's dream scenario if an election was granted. Oh and England qualified for the Rugby World Cup final which was almost certainly BOJO's doing as they had never qualified under any other Prime Minister. They have, three times, but when did the truth ever affect BOJO's view. A border is only a border when BOJO says it is. October 28th 2019.
When is an election not an election? Bit of a theme here. Following a vote in Parliament today, there will be no election on December 12th Following a possible vote in Parliament tomorrow, there may be an election on December 12th. Or 9th. Or not. However the EU, the organisation we are trying to leave, have decided with little sign of indecision that we will be granted an extension to Article 50 until 31st January 2020. I guess we are a bit too stupid to remain in such an organisation. October 30th 2019.
What does the future hold? Barring unforeseen disasters, the United Kingdom will go to the polls in an election on Thursday, December 12th. What is this blog going to do about that? Well, I am not going to deluge you, gentle reader, with the day-after-day drivel you will be able to get from the British media. Most articles will be propaganda, much will be conjecture and some, dare I say, will be blatant lies. As the written press and their associated websites is probably 70% in favour of remain and 90% against Jeremy Corbyn, they can best be ignored if you want information to help you make an educated choice. This website will, hopefully, help you with that educated choice. The plan is that tomorrow, October 31st or diad (dead in a ditch) day, I will try to explain how the British electoral system works. From November 2nd, for five days, I will look at the five nationwide parties who will provide the choices for the electorate in the United Kingdom. However, I have decided to ignore the Scottish Nationalist Party, Plaid Cymru and the Democratic Unionist Party. Although their MPs will have an effect on the make-up of the United Kingdom Parliament, they do, as far as I am aware, only field candidates in their own nation. I will then go silent until, on December 7th and for the four subsequent days, I will look at how each party has performed in their campaigning. You will spot that you will, therefore, have a whole month without any blogs on this site. Lucky you. October 31st 2019.
The day the ditch was ditched and the DODO (do or die offer) became extinct again. Also how an election works. The United Kingdom's form of government is known as a parliamentary democracy. This means, essentially, that the voters, the electorate, you, elect people to a parliament which then passes laws that, in the majority of cases, are proposed by the government. The government, the executive, is made up of people from the political party who has the most members of the parliament. The leader of that party will normally be asked to form a government by the monarch and will become the Prime Minister. That's the simple bit but, as you will see later, complications can, and these days, often do happen. The UK Parliament has 650 members. Each member represents an area which is known as a constituency. On average each constituency has about 70,000 voters but the number can vary around that figure. For example, the Isle of Wight has about 110,000 voters while the Outer Hebrides has less than 22,000. Everyone who lives in a constituency and has registered to vote can, indeed, do so but, among other rules, you must, as of now, be over 18. Other people who cannot vote are prisoners or those convicted of a crime but only for a criminal offence. Unless they are a UK, Irish or Commonwealth citizen, a foreign resident in the UK cannot vote in parliamentary elections. Neither can people convicted of election crimes in the preceding five years nor Members of the House of Lords. There is no law saying members of the Royal Family cannot vote, but it would be considered unconstitutional for them to do so and they don't. The number of people who do exercise their right to choose a member of parliament varies. The average turnout in a general election, the number of people who actually vote, is, these days, near to 70%. Polling stations, places where people can vote, are open from 7.00am until 10.00pm. People can also choose to have a postal vote or, in some cases, get someone to vote for them. This is called a proxy vote. Once the polling stations close, all the ballot boxes, containing everyone's vote, are sent to a central counting place in each constituency and the count begins. Some constituencies declare their result very quickly, other take longer. It depends a bit on the size of the constituency and how far ballot boxes have had to travel. The fastest can declare within an hour, the longest more than 12 hours after the polling stations have closed. The vast majority of results come in between 2.00am and 6,00am. Each constituency's result is declared by a returning officer and he or she will announce how many votes each candidate received. Obviosuly the one with the most votes is elected and becomes the Member of Parliament for that constituency. Sometimes, if the vote is very close, a candidate may ask for a recount or even two or three. In the 2017 election Stephen Gethins won in North East Fife with a majority of 2. This means he had 2 more votes than the second placed candidate. When all results are in, it is then the party with the greatest number of MPs that gets to form the next government. If they have more MPs than all the other parties put together they are said to have an absolute majority and they are able to govern. However, as has happened in two of the last three elections, no one party has managed to have more than half of the 650 MPs. We then have what is called a hung parliament and the wheeler dealing begins. I think we'll leave an explanation of that until after the election. All this piece was intended to do was tell you how the election is conducted.